domingo, 9 de fevereiro de 2014

POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA - PECUNIARIIS CONSILIUM - MONETARY POLICY

http://www.dw.de/image/0,,15998586_303,00.jpg
Members of Constitutional Court of Germany http://www.dw.de/german-constitutional-court-opens-hearing-on-ecb-bonds/a-16873176

Bundesbank put in Constitutional Court of Germany a question about the potential system that gave to European Central Bank (ECB) the easy key to stop the high pressure over Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece: by words and by a European decision, the leader of ECB stop the increase of the fire, supported by ambiguous positions of the European liberals.

The Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) approved by European authorities (September of 2012) that gave ECB capacity to buy debt of European states, have the resistance of Bundesbank, but the German Constitucional Court move the question to European Court of Justice (ECJ).

«I consider it difficult imagine that the German courts could decide directly about the legality of the ECB's actions» Wolfgang Schäuble (Minister of Finances of German Government)

"From our point of view, not doing anything would have been a bigger risk. The ECB and its decision makers are aware of the boundaries of their mandat» Joerg Asmussen (ECB board member)

«It can't be the task of monetary policies to buy time for fiscal action»  Jens Weidmann (Bundesbank President)

The trend is very positive to Europe and to Germany. Finnaly European Union can use it force to defend itself for the treaths of the market. What would be win by Germany is much more important that what would be lost. We think that if Germany have immediately this kind of options, the fire never go so far, that put Germany in front of it self vulnerabilities, hidden by European force: it´s ironic, more Germany tried to appear like it self forces expurgated of the vulnerabilities of the other countries, more Germany appear with it dependence of European Union, that gave to her a lot of markets empolated by credit, with imports (exports) without economic rationality. After buurned that markets, Asia or Anerica were a solution? No! Germany need an Europe with more health to support it development. The replace of Liberals by Social Democrats give to Germany a more European vision of the World. That don´t implicate that Germany need to support all European inercies of the keynesian past that need deep reforms like we can see in France and other countries, but the support of Agriculture by European Union need also a great chance that colide with subsidies that hiden high costs of opportunity: the priority is an Industrial Policy that create a competitive Europe with sinergies between all contries and a much more balanced relationships that implicate an German market much more supported to create virtuous circles and games with positive sum.  

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/5/50/U.S._Federal_Reserve_-_Treasury_and_Mortgage-Backed_Securities_Held.png/800px-U.S._Federal_Reserve_-_Treasury_and_Mortgage-Backed_Securities_Held.png
«U.S. Federal Reserve - Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities Held» from FRED database by Farcaster (Wikipedia) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

The other side of the coin of the factory of money named Federal Reserve of United States of America that print notes to buy U.S. Treasury securities: since the begining of 2009 Federal Reserve come from 476.000 millions of USD to 2.870.000 millions of USD at March 21, 2013. In February 5, 2014 up to 3.779.000 millions of USD (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/Janet_Yellen_official_portrait.jpg/480px-Janet_Yellen_official_portrait.jpg

By this way United Sates of America stop recession that begun in 2008. Now Janet Yellen will lead Federal Reserve and manage the end of the «quantitative easy», the manufacturing of money that emerge with the emerging economies, wishing profitable investments.

The first signals come from that emerging economies like Argentina with dificulties to control de devaluation of it currency in an hiden inflaction process (devaluation of the money face to goods and services, the other merchandises with potential manipulation of statistics). The antecipated trend by Brazil for example, is increase interest rate for support currency. India, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa, a lot of countries are ovre threats that could prejudice the wished recuperation of the recessive European Union.

And about that and about «European internal market» the statistics show a recessive December in retail sale. How is possible so optmistic words from Europeam Comission about European Economy?

Over pressure of the recessive Bundesbank (always with affraid of inflaction and incentives to save) European Central Bank said that don´t exist at the moment deflaction in Europe with 0,8% of inflaction ... We will wait and see ... 

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