sábado, 15 de fevereiro de 2014

ECONOMIA DE PORTUGAL III - OECONOMIA LUSITANAE III - ECONOMY OF PORTUGAL III

These are the last available data about Portuguese Economy.

About TURNOVER change between 2012 and 2013 we can see growing by external markets and decreasing by domestic market with exception of food chain value.

 About VALUE ADDED + Taxes over production and imports - Subsidies to production (Gross Domestic Product) INE have a quick estimation of rate change with constant prices of -1,4%, less worse than expected along the year. But that don´t means growing or a trend of growing as Government like manipulate and link to the incredible financial assistance program: exports are merit of GALP (to much, with a lot of imports of crude, with lower margins of refination, with polution) and many companies with lower values than GALP and imports of automobiles in last quarter is not the way for growing, certainly.
 Our estimation is a devaluation of Domestic Market about 24.500 M€ since 2010 until 2013 (-13,9%) that implicate a decrease of imports (about -7.000 M€, -10,6%) and by Exports (about +8.400 M€, +16%), GDP have a decrease of about -9.400 M€ (-5,8%).
 So where is the growing of Government? In an approach of quarter after quarter we can see the last three quarters with less worse figures but ...
 ... if we take a look to a montly approach of Turnover in sectors with more dependence of Domestic Market we have a continuous decrease in numbers index of December in Retail sales (131, 120, 110, 108 in 2013), the same evolution for Services and Construction. The only exception is Industry for Domestic Market. So December seems worst, we know that November was determinant in last quarter, we don´t have a clear trend and threats are high, uncertainity amplified by Goverment policies have an high level!


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